If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.

The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.

But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.

That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.

Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.

Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower

Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.

That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. 

Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”

There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.

So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.

New Home Sales Also Slowed

Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.

Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.

But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.

Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.

Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.

They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.

Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.

Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.

Bottom Line

The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.

Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.

So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.

If you want to know what’s happening in our local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, let’s connect.

You started shopping with a specific mental image of your future home in your mind. Then the houses in your budget came in smaller than you pictured.

That’s the reality for a lot of buyers right now. Affordability is tight.

But don’t let that discourage you. Going smaller might actually be a smart play in today’s market – and the upside can be bigger than you’d think. Let’s break down two places to look where smaller won’t necessarily feel like a compromise.

Homebuilders Are Focused on Smaller Options Lately

For starters, smaller is kind of on trend right now. Newly built homes have been shrinking for years. According to the latest data from the Census, the median square footage of new single-family homes has been falling overall since 2014 (see graph below):

Why? Builders focus on the types of homes consumers want the most. After all, they want to build what will actually sell. And for the past decade, buyers seem to agree less is more.

Especially right now, when affordability is a key concern, they’re building homes with smaller square footage than a decade ago. And that’s good because that may be more within budget for many buyers. It’s part of why new home prices recently hit a 5-year low.

So, if you’re not getting excited about any of the existing options at your price point, it may be time to check out what builders are doing in your area.

You may find brand-new options you really love with all the latest and greatest features. And if you’ve got modern appliances and design, maybe slightly less square footage doesn’t feel like that much of a compromise anymore, especially if the house is move-in ready.

Condos Are Opening Up Another Path

Just in case you don’t have a ton of new builds in your area, another avenue worth exploring is condominiums or condos.

For buyers crunching numbers to make the math work, condos can take real pressure off the budget. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price for condos is less than the median for single-family homes in every region (see graph below):

Part of that is because condos are typically smaller. And smaller square footage can come with a smaller price tag too. That’s a selling point to affordability-strapped buyers right now – and it’s one of the reasons we’re seeing a bump in condo sales.

The number of condos sold rose 2.7% from just a month ago. It’s also up year over year, according to NAR. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for New Home Source, explains why more buyers are going this route:

“In addition to favoring smaller floor plans, more consumers are showing a willingness to live in an attached home. This shift is not driven by a preference for shared walls, but by a pursuit of value.”

The Community Does Some of the Heavy Lifting

Here’s why smaller may still work for you. Whether it’s a condo complex or a neighborhood of detached single-family homes, the right community can give you back in amenities what you trade in square footage.

Many developments are designed so the home is just one piece of where you actually spend your time. Master-planned communities often include walking trails, pools, fitness centers, co-working spaces, and outdoor gathering areas – the kind of features that pick up where your floor plan leaves off.

No room for a dedicated office? The co-working space might be just a five-minute walk away. Want a place to work out? It’s already built in with the shared gym. And features like that can make opting for a smaller footprint feel less like a compromise – and more like a big lifestyle upgrade.

Bottom Line

Today’s smaller single-family homes and condos have more going for them than the square footage suggests. They can give your budget some breathing room and put you in a community designed with lifestyle in mind.

Curious about the options in our area? Let’s connect.

Let’s be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind.

Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising

After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again. And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why.

Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates.

And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly:

“You can’t have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.”

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact:

It’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it’s probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases?

It’s possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long.

Rates probably aren’t heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That’s the reality, and it’s worth knowing.

So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold?

Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices

You’ve probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there’s no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It’s a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here’s what doesn’t make the headlines. It’s not all bad news.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices.

• Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year.
• And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year.

As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help.

A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady.

Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady

Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There’s been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth:

Part of what’s keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices. That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did.

And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you’re not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision.

Bottom Line

Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugar coating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Let’s talk. Reach out and let’s set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.