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2026 Housing Market Outlook
After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.
More Homes Will Sell
With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):
What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.
Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease
The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.
The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):
There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.
Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.
And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.
If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.
Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate
What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.
So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.
Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):
This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.
Bottom Line
After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.
So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?
Let’s connect if you want to get ready.
Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat
If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.
In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.
What the Data Really Shows
While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.
If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).
The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.
One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:
“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”
When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.
And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.
So, what’s actually important for you to know?
If You’re Buying…
You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.
- In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
- In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.
The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat.
If You’re Selling…
You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.
- In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
- But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.
The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.
The Real Story Is Local
The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:
“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”
That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.
They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.
Bottom Line
Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.
Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now?
If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.
Don’t Let Unrealistic Pricing Cost You Your Move
These days, you’re going to want to get your price right when you get ready to sell your house. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high just to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market.
And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.
The Real Pitfall of Overpricing
Many homeowners remember what their neighbor’s house sold for a few years ago, and they want to chase that same sky-high number. The problem is, that was a different market.
Today, there are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking just to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:
“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”
But here’s the good news. You still have one big advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead.
The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake.
Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move
Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether?
Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to just pull their listing off the market entirely.
In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) over half of agents (54%) say there are more homes being taken off the market than usual.
And the top reasons for that? According to the agents, homeowners didn’t get any offers they felt were fair. The survey from JBREC and KCM explains it like this:
“Sellers holding onto high price expectations is the leading reason they are delisting their homes.”
BrightMLS data backs this up:
“. . . sellers are delisting after having their home on the market and finding they are not getting the price they hoped for.”
It’s more proof pricing too high does more than turn buyers away, it puts your whole move at risk. Because if no one looks at your home or makes an offer, how are you going to sell it?
The Secret To Making Your Move Happen
If you’re selling to relocate for a job, need more space for your growing family, or have to be closer to your relatives as they age, you can’t afford to get stuck. You need a pricing strategy that helps you move forward – and that starts with the right agent.
The sellers who are winning right now are the ones working with experienced local agents who know the current market and aren’t afraid to have honest conversations about price.
And it’s paying off. In the right price range and condition, homes are still selling fast, sometimes even with multiple offers.
Bottom Line
Pricing your house for today’s market isn’t just about getting it sold. It’s about making sure your move doesn’t stall before it starts.
Let’s talk through what buyers are really paying right now in our local area, and how to price your home to match.
Why October Is the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2025
If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:
“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”
So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:
- More homes to choose from
- Less competition from other buyers
- More time to browse
- Better home prices
- Sellers who are more willing to negotiate
Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:
“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”
Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
- Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
- Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
- Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
- Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
- Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
- Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
- Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
- Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
- Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
- Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
- Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
- Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
- Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
- Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
- Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
- Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
- Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
- Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
- Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
- Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
- Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
- Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
- St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
- Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
- Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18
What the Experts Are Saying
And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”
Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:
“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”
And NerdWallet says:
“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”
How To Get Ready for this Golden Window
To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market’s peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready.
Bottom Line
If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play.
Want help lining up your strategy? Let’s have a quick conversation so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.
Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year
You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?
Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.
The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):
When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.
It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.
The Spread Is Shrinking
Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.
But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):
And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:
“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline
It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.
This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.
Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):
But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way.
How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.
Bottom Line
Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.
If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let’s connect so you have someone to keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.
What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding)
A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below):
Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with.
Prices Are Moderating
Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace.
That’s a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines.
Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace.
Mortgage Rates Are Easing
At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”
Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs.
The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here.
Why This Matters
Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs.
For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year.
Bottom Line
Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026.
If you’re considering a move, let’s connect walk you through what’s happening in our area – and what it means for your plans.
Closing Costs Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdowns for Today’s Buyers
If you’re planning to buy a home this year, there’s one expense you can’t afford to overlook: closing costs.
Almost every buyer knows they exist, but not that many know exactly what they cover, or how different they can be based on where you’re buying. So, let’s break them down.
What Are Closing Costs?
Your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you make when finalizing your home purchase. Every buyer has them. According to Freddie Mac, they typically include things like homeowner insurance and title insurance, as well as various fees for your:
- Loan application
- Credit report
- Loan origination
- Home appraisal
- Home inspection
- Property survey
- Attorney
National vs. Local: Why the Numbers Look So Different
When you search for information about closing costs online, you’ll often see a national range, usually 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. While that’s a useful starting point if you’re working on your homebuying budget, it doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, your closing costs will also vary based on:
- Taxes and fees where you live (like transfer taxes and recording fees)
- Service costs for things like title and attorney work in your local area
While the home price is obviously going to matter, state laws, tax rates, and even the going costs for title and attorney services can change what you expect to pay. That’s why it’s important to talk to the pros ahead of time so you know what to budget for. It can put you in control before you even start shopping.
To give you a rough ballpark, here’s a state-by-state look at typical closing costs right now based on those factors for the median-priced home in each state (see map below):
As the map shows, in some states, typical closing costs are just roughly $1-3K. In a few places, they can be closer to $10-15K. That’s a big swing, especially if you’re buying your first home. And that’s why knowing what to expect matters.
If you want a real number to help with your budget, your best bet is to talk to a local agent and a lender. They can run the math for your price range, loan type, and exact location.
And just in case you’re looking at your state’s number and wondering if there’s any way to trim that bill, NerdWallet shares a few strategies that can help:
- Negotiate with the seller. Ask for concessions like a credit toward your closing costs.
- Shop around for homeowner’s insurance. Compare coverage and rates before you commit.
- Check for assistance programs. Some states, professions, and neighborhoods offer help. Your agent and lender can point you to what’s available locally.
Bottom Line
Closing costs are a key part of buying a home, but they can vary more than most people realize. Knowing your numbers (and how to potentially bring them down) can go a long way and help you feel confident about your purchase.
Let’s look at typical closing costs in our area and get you a personalized estimate, so you can craft your ideal budget.
Downsizing Without Debt: How More Homeowners Are Buying Their Next House in Cash
If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here’s a trend worth paying attention to:
More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.
A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):
One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.
How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power
As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus:
- Less financial stress as you age
- More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home
- And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction
Here’s how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it’s more realistic than you may think.
In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below):
For Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free.
Because downsizing isn’t about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring.
Bottom Line
You’ve worked hard for your home. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you.
Let’s talk about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?
Why Buyers and Sellers Face Very Different Conditions Today
There’s a new divide in housing right now. In some states, buyers are gaining ground. In others, sellers still have the upper hand. It all depends on where you live. Curious what’s happening in your state?
These 3 maps show how the split is playing out across the country. In each one:
- Darker Shades of Blue = Buyer friendly
- Lighter Shades of Blue = Seller strong
Inventory Sets the Stage
While the number of homes for sale has improved pretty much across the board, how much growth we’ve seen can look dramatically different based on where you live. And that impacts who has the leverage today.
This map uses data from Realtor.com to break it down:
- The darker shades of blue show where inventory has risen more than in other areas of the country. Buyers here have more to choose from and should have an easier time finding a home and leveraging their negotiating power.
- The lighter shades of blue are where inventory is still low. Sellers are more likely to sell quickly and make fewer concessions.
Prices Follow Inventory
Prices Follow InventoryThe second map tracks how home prices are shifting by state. Just like above, you can see the divide taking shape. Many of the same areas are darker blue. That’s because there’s such a close tie between inventory and prices. When inventory rises, prices moderate.
- The darker shades of blue are where prices are actually coming down slightly or flattening. Because, with more homes for sale, sellers may have to cut their price or throw in concessions to get a deal done. And that benefits budget-conscious buyers.
- The lighter shades of blue show areas where prices are still climbing because inventory is low. Sellers may still see buyers competing for homes, and that pushes prices higher.
Time on Market Tells the Same Story
Time on Market Tells the Same StoryFinally, here’s how quickly homes are selling state by state. See the colors? For the most part, they follow the same general pattern with a lot of the darker blues being in the lower half of the country. And here’s why.
Generally speaking, as inventory grows, homes don’t sell as quickly. That’s why some of the same areas that have more inventory, see homes take more time to sell.
- The darker blues show where homes are staying on the market longer. That gives buyers more time and options, and signals sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
- The lighter blues are where homes are still moving quickly. Sellers there may feel more confident, and buyers may need to act fast.
This explains why some sellers in these darker blue states are feeling frustrated when their listings linger, while others in tighter markets (like the lighter blue states) are still seeing their homes sell quickly.
Why an Agent’s Local Expertise Is the Key To Unlocking Today’s Market
Basically, the housing market is experiencing a divide. And conditions are going to vary a lot based on where you live, where you’re moving, and if you’re buying or selling. While the state-level information helps, what really matters is what’s happening in your town and your neighborhood. And only a local agent truly has the information you need.
Bottom Line
Want to know what conditions look like in your neighborhood?
If you want to understand which side of the market you’re on, let’s connect. We can walk through the numbers and what they mean for your next move.
3 Reasons Affordability Is Showing Signs of Improvement This Fall
For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them.
But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall.
The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):
And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:
- Mortgage rates
- Home prices
- Your wages
Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have come down compared to earlier this year. In May, they were roughly 7%. And now, they’re closer to 6.3% (see graph below):
That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were 7%, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now at 6.3%, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.
And for some people, that’s been enough to make buying a home possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explained on September 10th:
“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”
2. Home Prices
After several years of prices rising very rapidly, price growth has finally slowed. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, puts it:
“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”
For buyers, that’s actually a big relief. That moderation makes it easier to plan your budget. And in some markets, prices have even dipped slightly. If you’re in one of the markets, you may be able to find something that’s more affordable than you’d expect.
3. Wages
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are up near 4% annually. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why that number is so important right now:
“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
In other words, the typical paycheck is rising faster than home prices right now, which helps make buying a little more affordable. Now, it’s not a big difference, but in a market like this, every bit counts.
What This Means for You
Lower rates, slower price growth, and stronger wages might be enough to make the numbers finally work for you this fall.
While affordability is still tight, it’s a little easier on your wallet to buy now than it was just few months ago. Remember, data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment is already around $290 lower than it was earlier this year.
Bottom Line
Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?
Let’s run the numbers together. We can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.
